Bernstein analysts project that prediction markets will generate up to $1.7 billion in revenue for Robinhood Markets (HOOD) by 2028, a figure expected to surpass the platform's projected crypto-derived revenues of $1.6 billion for the same year. This forecast indicates that prediction markets are becoming a significant incremental earnings driver for the retail-focused trading platform, accounting for approximately 18% of Robinhood’s total projected revenue of $9.4 billion in 2028.
The analysis estimates that revenue from this sector will grow from about $650 million in the current year to the $1.7 billion mark by 2028. The timing of this projection precedes Robinhood’s third-quarter 2026 financial report, which Bernstein expects to show a 13% quarter-over-quarter increase in revenue to around $1.5 billion. This growth is attributed to rising volumes in equities, options, and event contracts, alongside a recovery in crypto trading activity.
In response to these trends, Bernstein raised its revenue estimates for Robinhood by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027, and 3% for 2028, while maintaining an unchanged price target of $160. Despite the positive outlook on future revenue streams, HOOD shares faced downward pressure in premarket trading on Monday, falling to $93.60. The stock has declined more than 29% over the past 12 months.
The projection that prediction markets will outpace crypto revenues by 2028 signals a strategic diversification for Robinhood, reducing its reliance on the volatile digital asset cycle. By positioning event-based trading as a core revenue pillar, the platform aims to stabilize earnings through products that may exhibit different demand elasticity compared to speculative crypto assets. This shift suggests that regulatory clarity and user adoption in prediction markets could offer a more predictable income stream than traditional crypto trading volumes.
However, the divergence between bullish long-term forecasts and immediate stock performance highlights market skepticism regarding execution risks or broader macroeconomic pressures. While Bernstein’s raised estimates reflect confidence in volume growth across equities and options, the persistent decline in share value indicates investors may be pricing in higher operational costs or competitive threats. Monitoring whether Q3 results validate the predicted volume increases will be critical in assessing if this new revenue channel can deliver on its promised scale.
