Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Asset Management, stated that the market bottom for Bitcoin has been reached. This assessment follows Bitcoin’s price reclaiming its 50-week moving average during the week of September 20, a trend that has subsequently held. Galaxy’s analysis relies on historical data indicating that in the four previous instances where Bitcoin reclaimed this technical level after trading below it for more than 20 weeks, the asset never closed more than 8.4% under the reclaim level within the following year.
The firm uses this specific statistical pattern to support its view that downside risk is currently limited. The commentary was delivered as part of a show hosted by BTC Inc., with a disclaimer noting that the views expressed are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. The content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Thorn’s assertion rests entirely on a narrow sample size of four historical events, which introduces significant statistical fragility into the prediction. While the 50-week moving average is a widely watched technical indicator, relying on past reclaims to cap future downside at 8.4% assumes that current macroeconomic conditions, regulatory environments, and market structures mirror those of previous cycles. This approach overlooks potential structural shifts in liquidity or institutional behavior that could invalidate historical correlations.
From an operational risk perspective, framing such a specific percentage limit as a definitive floor may create false confidence among investors who interpret technical patterns as guarantees rather than probabilistic tendencies. The disclaimer explicitly separates these views from official corporate positions, highlighting the tension between individual analyst commentary and institutional responsibility. Market participants should weigh the historical precedent against the reality that past performance does not ensure future results, particularly when the dataset is limited to just four occurrences over multiple years.
