Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, stated in a Monday report that Bitcoin’s bear market concluded in June and the asset has entered an accumulation phase. Thorn characterized the current environment as "an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin," citing technical indicators and macroeconomic factors. As of Thursday, Bitcoin traded near $80,000, representing a 36% decline from its October 2025 high but a 39% increase from its June 30 low. The analysis highlights that Bitcoin closed five consecutive weeks above its 50-week moving average, a level it reclaimed in September after spending 44 weeks below it.
Thorn pointed to historical patterns where Bitcoin regained its all-time high following similar reclaim events, noting that prices never fell more than 8.4% below the reclaim level in the subsequent year. On-chain data supports this view, showing that for the first time in any bear market, Bitcoin’s market value did not drop below its realized value. The ratio between these metrics bottomed at 1.10, compared to lows of 0.56, 0.69, and 0.75 in previous cycles. Additionally, selling pressure appears to be diminishing, with long-dormant coins being sold at half the pace seen in 2024, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low.
The macroeconomic backdrop includes federal debt reaching $40.44 trillion and a fiscal 2026 deficit of $1.99 trillion. With the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 5.31%, its highest since 2007, Thorn argued that betting against hard assets is effectively a bet on fiat currency. However, recent hotter-than-expected inflation data has revived speculation about further Federal Reserve rate hikes, causing Bitcoin to briefly dip below $80,000. Galaxy Digital and Thorn disclosed that they hold Bitcoin positions.
Thorn’s assertion relies heavily on specific technical thresholds and historical analogies rather than fundamental changes in network utility or adoption rates. By anchoring the end of the bear market to the June low and the subsequent recovery of the 50-week moving average, the analysis suggests that market structure has shifted from distribution to accumulation. This perspective challenges the traditional four-year cycle narrative by emphasizing that the depth of the drawdown was shallower than previous cycles, potentially indicating increased institutional resilience or different liquidity dynamics within the spot ETF era.
However, the bullish thesis faces immediate friction from macroeconomic realities. While high federal debt and Treasury yields are cited as drivers for Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge, rising interest rates simultaneously increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. The volatility observed in ETF flows—swinging from significant inflows to heavy outflows—demonstrates that institutional capital remains sensitive to broader monetary policy expectations. Investors should monitor whether the price can sustain levels above the 50-week average despite potential Fed tightening, as a failure to do so would invalidate the technical premise of the accumulation phase.
