U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a significant reversal in October, shedding $635.6 million on Thursday according to Decrypt’s ETF tracker. This single-day outflow erased nearly 60% of the $1.07 billion inflow streak recorded over the previous three sessions and marked the largest daily exit for the month, surpassing the $484.9 million loss on Oct. 7. The heavy selling pushed October’s net position back into negative territory, with funds now down approximately $176 million after having climbed to roughly $460 million in net inflows earlier in the week. Cumulative net inflows since the January 2024 launch have slipped to $57.8 billion, while total net assets stand at $100.2 billion.
Ethereum ETFs also faced substantial pressure, losing $110.6 million on Thursday. This follows a day where they snapped a five-day outflow streak, bringing their total October losses to about $1.18 billion. Solana ETFs shed $8.9 million, contributing to roughly $68 million in outflows this month, characterized by only two days of inflows. Despite these heavy institutional withdrawals, underlying asset prices remained relatively stable. Bitcoin traded near $81,460, flat over 24 hours and down 0.4% on the week, while Ethereum dipped slightly to about $2,400 and Solana slipped to roughly $104. Total crypto market capitalization held steady at approximately $2.85 trillion, though trading volume fell 20% to $67.1 billion.
The selling coincided with broader market volatility, including oil prices climbing above $111 a barrel and AI stocks sliding, which dragged the S&P 500 lower. Traders are anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate hold during its upcoming meeting on Oct. 27-28. On prediction markets like Myriad, odds of Bitcoin topping $87,500 before the end of October were cut to 17%, down from 20% the previous day.
The sharp reversal in ETF flows highlights the fragility of recent sentiment improvements among institutional investors. While the $635.6 million outflow is technically severe, erasing most of the prior week's gains, the stability of spot prices suggests that retail demand or long-term holders may be absorbing supply that institutions are offloading. This divergence indicates that ETF flows are becoming a more volatile indicator of short-term trader positioning rather than a direct proxy for fundamental price discovery. The fact that Bitcoin remained near $81,460 despite the largest monthly outflow implies that the market has already priced in some level of profit-taking or risk-off behavior linked to broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
From a Market Structure perspective, the simultaneous bleeding of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs points to a correlated risk-off event driven by external factors such as rising oil prices and equity market weakness, rather than asset-specific failures. The reduction in odds for a Bitcoin breakout on prediction markets reflects growing caution ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Investors should watch whether the current price resilience holds if ETF outflows persist; if spot prices begin to crack under continued institutional selling, it could signal a deeper correction phase. Conversely, if prices remain stable, it reinforces the narrative that crypto assets are decoupling from traditional equities' immediate volatility.
