On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports that long-term Bitcoin holders, defined as those holding coins for more than 155 days, control approximately 4 million BTC acquired between $85,000 and $118,000. Most of this block was purchased in 2025, creating a significant overhead resistance level as the asset trades near $81,600. Glassnode notes that more than half of all long-term holder coins were bought above the current price, suggesting potential selling pressure if Bitcoin attempts to reclaim the $85,000 threshold. The firm highlights that the $84,000 to $85,000 band has acted as a barrier four times this year, with Bitcoin closing above it on only five days since January.
Concurrently, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders are approaching break-even status. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart estimates the average cost basis for these funds at just under $82,000, while Glassnode places the figure at $81,500. As of Monday, Seyffart calculated an unrealized loss of approximately $2.63 billion for ETF holders, though he clarified this metric tracks fund flows rather than secondary market purchases. Recent data from SoSoValue indicates modest inflows of about $424 million into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs from Monday to Wednesday, following a $635 million outflow on October 22.
The macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging for risk assets. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote on Wednesday, with dissenters favoring a hike. Traders had previously assigned over 70% odds to a December rate increase. HashKey senior researcher Tim Sun argues that persistently high U.S. Treasury yields, which stood just under 5% on Thursday, raise the opportunity cost for holding Bitcoin. Additionally, lower funding rates on perpetual futures have reduced returns on cash-and-carry arbitrage strategies, leading some institutional players to cut exposure.
The convergence of heavy overhead supply from long-term holders and near-break-even positions among ETF investors creates a fragile technical environment for Bitcoin’s recovery. While the $85,000 level is often cited as psychological resistance, the sheer volume of coins acquired above this price point transforms it into a structural ceiling where profit-taking or loss-mitigation selling could overwhelm buying demand. This dynamic is exacerbated by the fact that many recent entrants via ETFs are still underwater, meaning any rally may trigger immediate redemption pressures or hedging activity rather than sustained accumulation.
From a Market Structure perspective, the drying up of cash-and-carry arbitrage opportunities signals a shift in institutional behavior. When hedge funds and banks reduce spot ETF exposure due to compressed yield spreads, the market loses a key stabilizing force that previously absorbed volatility. With Treasury yields remaining elevated, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin continues to weigh on investor appetite. The critical indicator to watch is whether new capital inflows can absorb the realized losses of long-term holders without triggering a cascade of sell-offs, particularly as the Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive stance.
