A Reuters/Ipsos survey indicates that a majority of Americans oppose using prediction markets to bet on US elections and other government actions. The poll, conducted between September 30 and October 5 with 4,506 adults nationwide, found that 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans opposed wagering on election results via platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Opposition extended to professional sports betting, with 43% of respondents against it compared to 29% in support.
The industry currently faces significant regulatory uncertainty as the Trump administration pursues federal oversight through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while state authorities contest this jurisdiction. This conflict has led to numerous lawsuits and was described by 39 US states and the District of Columbia in an amicus brief filed on October 8 as a "national turf war" requiring Supreme Court intervention to resolve.
The polling data reveals a rare bipartisan consensus against political gambling, challenging the narrative that prediction markets are gaining broad public acceptance as legitimate financial instruments. While these platforms have grown in visibility, the majority opposition from both major political parties suggests that their integration into mainstream finance may face deeper cultural and ethical hurdles than regulatory ones alone.
This public sentiment complicates the ongoing jurisdictional battle between the CFTC and state regulators. As the dispute escalates toward potential Supreme Court review, the lack of popular support for election betting could influence judicial interpretations of consumer protection laws or state authority over gambling activities, potentially slowing the industry's push for federal preemption.
